Class 5 Missouri Boys basketball district rankings and predictions

It's early and some of the district seedings have not be published but I thought I would throw these out with my latest power ratings.  You will see more in-depth analysis at Prep Hoops at the Post Dispatch as the seeds are finalized.

For now, I am going to enjoy the last few class five regular season games and then see how good the old algorithm holds up in the district playoffs.

Enjoy.

CLASS 5 DISTRICT RANKINGS
District 1
#1 seed Poplar Bluff (15-6) should beat #2 seed Jackson by 10 in this district final and handle Mehlville in the sectional game.  It gets stickier in the quarterfinals against the deep district 3/4 sectional winner where Poplar Bluff's season probably ends.
Poplar Bluff High School	119
Jackson High School	108
Seckman High School	91
Northwest (Cedar Hill) High School	79
Average	99
District 2
Mehlville High School (19-7) is the most likely the #1 seed and should beat this district 2 field although Lindbergh's height could match up well.  The team's have split their two games this year.  Mehlville eliminates the Flyers in the rubber match by 5.
Mehlville High School	111
Vianney High School	106
Lindbergh High School	104
Oakville High School	94
Fox High School	88
Average	101
District 3
#1 Seed Marquette (18-5) has been locked in since losing to Rock Bridge in late January. The winner of the #2 Eureka and #3 Lafayette battle faces a tough challenge but an upset is not out of the question from either rival.  Gramps will pass on this prognostication.
Marquette High School	119
Eureka High School	117
Lafayette (Wildwood) High School	112
Parkway South High School	106
Washington High School	94
Average	110
District 4
This strong district field has not been seeded and for good reason.  How do you pick a #1 with CBC (17-7), De Smet (23-4) and Parkway Central (18-5)  playing as well as they all are.  CBC and Caleb Love win out here.
Christian Brothers College High School	125
DeSmet High School	122
Parkway Central High School	118
Kirkwood High School	109
Parkway West High School	93
Average	113
District 5
Another one of the strongest districts in the state, McCluer North (19-3) is the surprise #1 seed over #2 Webster Groves (18-2) and #3 Chaminade (12-8).  Look for a possible upset here, with the Webster-Chaminade winner (which could go to the buzzer) beating the Stars in a close district final.
Chaminade High School	125
Webster Groves High School	123
McCluer North High School	121
St. Louis University High School	104
Ritenour High School	93
Average	113
District 6
Hazelwood Central should be the #1 seed and should have no problem navigating through this field of good, but not great, teams, but gets eliminated by the district 5 champ in the sectional.
Hazelwood Central High School	119
Pattonville High School	110
Francis Howell Central High School	105
Hazelwood West High School	105
Francis Howell North High School	93
Average	107
District 7
Expect Francis Howell (22-2) to be the #1 seed and have a haymaker final vs. Ft. Zumwalt South (20-2) in what may be EJ Bellinger's last game.  Howell has a good shot at going all the way to the final where they will have their hands full with a team that starts with "Rock".  With a little luck Howell could win it all.
Francis Howell High School	127
Ft. Zumwalt South High School	121
Ft. Zumwalt West High School	107
Liberty (Wentzville) High School	106
Ft. Zumwalt North High School	104
Average	113
District 8
#4 seed Jeff City (10-12) upsets #1 Timberland (10-10) and then loses to #2 seed Troy Buchanan, the best 6-16 team in the state.  Don't count Troy out in the sectional game, as they lost to Howell by 3 and Zumwalt South by 1.
Troy Buchanan High School	110
Jefferson City High School	107
Holt High School	106
Timberland High School	101
Battle High School	98
Average	104
District 9
#1 seed Rock Bridge (17-3) should have no problem blowing through the district 9 field with a 30 point spread on the final vs. Raymore-Peculiar.  A potential state championship awaits if they can get by Kickapoo and Rockhurst to face Howell in the final.
Rock Bridge High School	133
Smith-Cotton High School	102
Raymore-Peculiar High School	101
Hickman High School	98
Belton High School	92
Average	106
District 10
#2 seed Waynesville (11-10) should beat #1 seed Camdenton by 7 in the district final before losing by 25 to Rock Bridge in the sectional.
Waynesville High School	108
Lebanon High School	102
Camdenton High School	101
Central (Springfield) High School	71
Average	95
District 11
#1 seed Kickapoo (16-4) beats #3 seed Ozark in the final after Ozark eases past #2 Nixa by 10.  Kickapoo could go deep into the state tournament lower bracket.
Kickapoo High School	122
Ozark High School	114
Nixa High School	104
Glendale High School	100
Branson High School	96
Average	107
District 12
#2 seed Willard (15-8) edges out #3 Parkview (13-11) before beating #4 Joplin (11-12) by 5, who "upsets" #1 seed Repulbic (18-6).  I say "upset" because I don't see Republic as a #1 seed despite their record against a softer schedule.
Willard High School	116
Parkview High School	112
Joplin High School	111
Republic High School	109
Carthage High School	94
Average	106
District 13
#1 seed Rockhurst (17-2) leads the way in the toughest district in the state, but should ease past #2 Lee's Summit North (17-3)  by 9 in the final.  Rockhurst probably has the toughest path to a state title, but should get by a top 5 ranked Blue Springs South, Kickapoo and Rock Bridge to reach the state final.  Likely state champs.
Rockhurst High School	131
Lee's Summit North High School	122
Lee's Summit High School	114
Ruskin High School	106
Lee's Summit West High School	102
Average	115
District 14
Not yet seeded, Blue Springs South is the cream of the crop in district 14 and should beat a strong Raytown team by 15 in the district final.  If they can get by Rockhurst, they could be a state finalist.  It’s a big IF.
Blue Springs South High School	130
Raytown High School	116
Truman High School	104
Blue Springs High School	100
Grain Valley High School	93
Average	109
District 15
William Chrisman leads the way in district 15 but faces a severe challenge from Fort Osage.  Either team could make a run into the state lower bracket.
William Chrisman High School	123
Fort Osage High School	120
Liberty North High School	109
Liberty High School	106
North Kansas City High School	99
Average	112
District 16
Another strong district, It's hard to pick a favorite between Park Hill, Park Hill South and Staley.  Look for Park Hill to win a squeeker final and make a run into the state tournament bracket.
Park Hill High School	120
Park Hill South High School	118
Staley High School	115
Oak Park High School	105
Central (St. Joseph) High School (Host)	104
Average	114

Class 4 Missouri Boys basketball district rankings

If you follow Prep Hoops, you will find a very in-depth and personal analysis of each class by district by esteemed Earl Austin, Jr. with the dope on the top players in each district.  If you don't follow Prep Hoops, you're the dope because you should plunk down a little change for a yearly subscription and get the real nitty gritty about high school and club basketball in the great state of Missouri.  I really don't know how the man and his staff can keep up with all those great ballers, but Earl does and it's always a great read.

What you get here, at my blog, is the superficial, statistical analysis for teams.  It's statistics, and may I remind you what Mark Twain said about Statistics.... "Lies, Damn Lies and Statistics".   So all of my predictions are based upon a paper trail, looking at scores and calculating an algorithm that gives each team a power rating.  The difference is the predicted win margin.  I get to 25 or 30 high school games a year, 100 select 2021 games each year.  Earl must see 10 times that many and he talks to all those great athletes.  Remarkable.

So do him a favor and sign up for Prep Hoops.  www.prephoops.com   and no, he didn't pay me to say this.  LOL

Here's my look at class 4 boys:

CLASS 4 DISTRICT RANKINGS
District 1
No seeding has been posted but the District 1 final could actually be the state championship game (no offense to KC Grandview) as Sikeston faces a tough Cape Central team that they beat by 2 a week ago.  Whomever wins this (most likely Sikeston), will probably face Grandview for the class 4 state championship.
Sikeston High School	133
Central (Cape Girardeau) High School	123
Notre Dame (Cape Girardeau) High School	109
Dexter High School	101
Perryville High School	97
Fredericktown High School	89
Average	117
District 2
Farmington (21-2) is prohibitive favorite and #4 seed St. Gen (14-11) and #2 seed Park Hills Central (14-11) are facing an uphill battle in district 2, but then Farmington has the formidable task of beating an elite and undefeated Sikeston team in section 1.
Farmington High School	115
Ste. Genevieve High School	105
Central (Park Hills) High School	98
North County High School	92
Potosi High School	91
DeSoto High School	87
Average	98
District 3
A balanced inside/outside offensive Hillsboro team (20-6) should outlast a solid #2 seed Lutheran South (14-9).  Hillsboro is a great home team, and, depending on the site, eke by the district 4 champ before being buzz sawed by Sikeston in the quarterfinal.
Hillsboro High School	109
Lutheran South High School	106
Festus High School	98
Rockwood Summit High School	97
Pacific High School	93
Windsor (Imperial) High School	92
Average	99
District 4
St. Mary's (11-12) got the nod for #1 seed but I think, Gateway (13-11), a solid #2 seed wins the ditrict if they can get past an improving Confluence (8-12).
Gateway High School	108
St. Mary's (St. Louis) High School	105
Confluence Prep Academy Charter High School	101
Miller Career Academy High School	97
Roosevelt High School	90
Affton High School	90
Average	99
District 5
This is one of the more competitve districts, and while seeding is not completed for district 5, I expect Ladue (15-7)  as #1 and Priory  (16-6) or Westminster  (14-9)  as #2.  Ladue should move on to a tough sectional matchup with Jennings.
Ladue Horton Watkins High School	114
Westminster Christian Academy High School	108
Priory High School	107
MICDS High School	107
John Burroughs High School	104
Parkway North High School	97
Average	106
District 6 Another competitive district, #1 seed Jennings (14-7) should have no problem in the district 6 finale with #2 seed Hazelwood East (9-11).  Jennings ekes by Ladue in the Sectional. Jennings High School  115 Hazelwood East High School  109 University City High School  108 Normandy Collaborative High School  106 Clayton High School  103 Riverview Gardens High School  102 Average 109
District 7
Seeding should place an athletic McCluer (15-7) as the #1 seed, who should get past St. Dominic (9-14) and St. Charles West (16-7).
McCluer High School	116
St. Dominic High School	108
St. Charles West High School	106
Ft. Zumwalt East High School	103
St. Charles High School	101
Orchard Farm High School	88
Average	104
District 8
An up and down #2 seed St. Francis Borgia  (12-10)  may pull an upset over  #1 seed Hannibal (15-4) but neither will get past McCluer in the sectional game.
St. Francis Borgia High School	109
Hannibal High School	106
Moberly High School	92
Kirksville High School	90
Warrenton High School	88
Mexico High School	74
Average	93
District 9
Warrensburg should be the #1 seed and should hand this district 9 field along with at least a sectional win vs. the district 10 champion and maybe one more againt Webb City or Logan-Rogersville before falling to Grandview.
Warrensburg High School	109
Helias Catholic High School	103
Fulton High School	97
Boonville High School	95
Marshall High School	93
Osage High School	84
Average	97
District 10
Sullivan (17-6) and Union (15-7) should go down to the final horn in this district finale but don't expect either to make a run past the sectional game.
Union High School	103
Sullivan High School	103
Rolla High School	94
St. Clair High School	90
Salem High School	87
Owensville High School	71
Average	91
District 11
West Plains (19-4) lost to Logan-Rogersville (19-5) by 20 during the regular season.  Logan-Rogersville should take districts easily but will have a tough game vs. Webb City at Sectionals.
Logan-Rogersville High School	109
West Plains High School	96
Reeds Spring High School	93
Marshfield High School	91
Aurora High School	87
Hillcrest High School	80
Average	93
District 12
Webb City's record (13-8) includes some tough losses to class 5 teams but none to these district  teams.  No problem here for the Cardinals.
Webb City High School	112
Neosho High School	95
Carl Junction High School	92
Cassville High School	86
Monett High School	85
McDonald County High School	73
Average	90
District 13
Grandview KC (19-2) only losses were to outstanding Fort Osage and Lawrence KS large school teams.  Grandview will go to the state final and has the potential to wreck Sikeston's perfect season.
Grandview High School	122
Nevada High School	110
Bolivar High School	108
Center High School	103
Harrisonville High School	89
Pleasant Hill High School	83
Average	103
District 14
#1 seed Raytown South  (14-8) will have a battle with Oak Grove in the district final.  Grandview eliminates this champion in the sectional game.
Raytown South High School	116
Oak Grove High School	112
Kearney High School	99
Odessa High School	82
Excelsior Springs High School	70
Van Horn High School	68
Average	91
District 15
KC Southeast (18-5) should easily take this district as they have already defeated East and Northeast by 20+ points in several match-ups.  Whether they can make a run in the state bracket vs. Grandview/Raytown South winner, remains to be seen.
Southeast High School	113
Northeast (Kansas City) High School	111
East (Kansas City) High School	99
Pembroke Hill High School	90
Lincoln College Prep High School	86
Guadalupe Centers Charter High School	37
Average	89
District 16
A down year for district 16, Lafayette St. Joseph (12-7) has edged Platte County (6-16) by 2 earlier in the year.  Can they do it twice?  Platte County could pulll an upset but none of the district 16 teams can compete with Southeast in Sectionals.
Lafayette (St. Joseph) High School	102
Platte County High School	100
Savannah High School	91
Winnetonka High School	90
Benton High School	88
Smithville High School	78
Average	91