Class 4 State Predictions

Class 4 Boys semis and final basketball games will not have as much suspense as the class five games if Grandview has anything to say about it, and they have been saying a lot this year with the way they have played.

Here's how they rank right now going into the semi-final round this coming week:
Team                    Season Rating            Back Half Rating
St. Mary's                 114                              120
Ladue                       115                              119

Logan-Rogersville   113                              116
Grandview               124                              127

Looking at the St. Mary's and Ladue Semi-final game, both teams started slow this season and have come on strong in the back half.  The two teams will play contrasting styles and it will be interesting to see if Ladue can keep the play at their pace or if it suits St. Mary's more.  I will take St. Mary's here by 10.  They will get Ladue out of their controlled pace and run the Greyhounds ragged.

Grandview has been dominating most teams and it will be no different for the Wildcats from Logan-Rogersville who have also started slow and come on stronger in the second half.  While playing better each month, L-R is at least a 10 to 15 point underdog to the Bulldogs.

That sets up a final with the Dragons and the Bulldogs.  The Dragons have never won a state title.  Grandview won in 2017.

Look for the Bulldogs to win their second by 5 in an exciting final.

Grandview.....  2019 Class 4 State Champs.

Class 5 final 4 predictions

It's a great final four with Rock Bridge, Lee's Summit North, CBC and Francis Howell all being great teams.  You can find in depth team analysis at Prep Hoops so I will stick strictly to numbers and a little tongue in cheek

.

I looked at the weighted season power rating, unweighted season rating and the end of season rating, all of which tell an interesting story, if you like numbers.

Team             Wgted     Unwgted   Backhalf
Rock Bridge  134.3        136.5         134.0
LSN               126.7        125.7         128.7
CBC              127.1        128.0         130.6
FH                 131.9        129.2         128.4

When I look at the Weighted rankings, which I have used for all of the blog postings for the entire season, Rock Bridge has a slight edge over Francis Howell for the state championship but both CBC and Lee's Summit North are within striking distance of either team.  A turnover here, a missed free throw there at a critical point down the stretch and any of these four teams could be state champion.  Still it appears Rock Bridge is the clear favorite in all three ratings.

The Unweighted ratings is looking at the season without any emphasis on one game over another.  I simply entered their point spreads verses all opponents to arrive at their rating.  In this case, Rock Bridge is again the clear favorite.

In the Back-half ratings, I looked at the opponents for only the last half of the season and it appears that CBC and Lee's Summit North are both coming on dramatically after slower starts.  Francis Howell has fallen off slightly from their early season performance on a point spread basis.  Even with these trends, there is not enough difference between these teams to slip a thin piece of paper between them.

So it's time to flip a coin on the semi-final games.....

I say Rock Bridge will beat Lee's Summit North by 5

I will go out on a limb and pick Francis Howell to stop the red-hot Cadets with a last second dunk on a put-back missed three by 6'9" super soph Sam Thompson to win by one in the other semi.

In the final, I am going out on limb and picking Francis Howell to beat Rock Bridge in another upset.  This one will be another close one.  Down to the wire.  Two point game.  Free throws by Matt Schark with 10 ticks left. 

Francis Howell, Class 5 State Champs.

Class 4 Missouri High School Boys Basketball Sectional picks

Here are my JIT (just in time) picks for class 4 sectionals.  All of these games take place this evening around the state.

The two marquee games are the section 1 game between Cape Central and Farmington and the section 7 games between Grandview and Raytown South, who are playing for the third time.

Look for the winners of section 1 and 7 to be in the state final.  I am sort of leaning toward Cape Central winning the whole thing right now.....

Here are my tongue in cheek picks:

Class 4 Section Picks
Section 1	Rating
Central (Cape Girardeau) High School	123
Two of the best teams in the state meet in the southeast sectional.  The Tigers maul the Knights in this one.  Cape by 8.
Farmington High School	115
Section 2	Rating
Hillsboro High School	109
While the Dragons are coming on, the inside/outside combination of the Hawks is too much for St. Mary's.  Hillsboro by 4.
St. Mary's (St. Louis) High School	105
Section 3	Rating
Ladue Horton Watkins High School	114
These teams have gone at it before and it's been a low post battle with no holds barred.  Jennings at the buzzer.
Jennings High School	115
Section 4	Rating
St. Charles West High School	106
My Chiropractor would break my neck if I didn’t pick the Knights to beat St. Charles West.  Keep Trent Champagne on ice and they win by 3.
St. Francis Borgia High School	109
Section 5	Rating
Warrensburg High School	109
The Tigers catch the Eagles nappings and shred their feathers.  Warrensburg by 6.
Sullivan High School	103
Section 6	Rating
Logan-Rogersville High School	109
And I thought the Cardinals were only good in football…. Webb City rolls over the L-R  Wildcats in a close contest by 3.
Webb City High School	112
Section 7	Rating
Grandview High School	122
Like the section 1 game, this game could be a state final, but instead it's just a sectional game.  Three times the charm, as the Bulldogs beat Raytown South for the third time this season.  Grandview by 6
Raytown South High School	116
Section 8	Rating
Southeast High School	113
The Fighting Irish from St. Joseph go down fighting as Southeast wins by 11.
Lafayette (St. Joseph) High School	102

Class 5 Sectional prognostications

You can get in-depth and thoughtful analysis of the prep contests over at Prep Hoops or the Post Dispatch for these boys high school contests coming up on March 6th.  All of these kids have worked really hard to get to this point, so hats off to all 100 or 120 of them.

Here are my tongue-in-cheek prognostications for the class 5 sectional games around the state of Missouri.

By the way, I didn't do to bad on district guesses for all five classes.  Off hand, I was something like right on 49 of 80 district winners for the five class for just over 60% correct.  I sucked in class 2 picks but really did well in class 1 and class 4 for some reason with nearly 75 to 80% correct.  I guess I will keep my day job though, Oh, wait, I don't have a day job....LOL

If you can get to a game, enjoy.  This all in good fun:

Class 5 Section Picks
Section 1	Rating
Jackson High School	114
A very close match up.  Jackson's frontline can go toe-to-toe with Mehlville and the coin toss goes to Jackson by 2.
Mehlville High School	112
Section 2	Rating
Eureka High School	117
The Brothers are too deep for the D-minded Cats who look to keep it under 10 til the fourth quarter and pull an upset down the stretch.
Christian Brothers College High School	127
Section 3	Rating
McCluer North High School	126
The Stars are not aligned for Central and they go down hard to a rising McCluer North senior- laden team by 10 or more.
Hazelwood Central High School	118
Section 4	Rating
Francis Howell High School	132
This game is not an even battle as the Howling starts before the opening tip.  Francis Howell blows out Battle by 25 or more.  Sorry, bad pun.
Battle High School	105
Section 5	Rating
Rock Bridge High School	134
Rock Bridge will be giving the underclassmen plenty of playing time in the second half.  The Bridge by 25.
Camdenton High School	109
Section 6	Rating
Kickapoo High School	120
It's become politically incorrect to keep a Native  American mascot name so does that justify me to say the Chiefs will kick the poo out of Republic by 7 or more?  Probably not....
Republic High School	113
Section 7	Rating
Lee's Summit North High School	126
This game could be a state final some years but instead it's just a sectional and one of these teams is trying out for spring sports on Thursday.  It's probably Lee's Summit North's players.  BSS by 4.
Blue Springs South High School	130
Section 8	Rating
William Chrisman High School	121
This game is TCTC (to close to call)!  NO?     Okay, then, Chrisman takes it at the buzzer.
Park Hill South High School	120

And the winner is...….   Look for Francis Howell to get by McCluer by 6 and then beat CBC by 5 to make the upper bracket as a finalist.  In the lower bracket, Rock Bridge will roll over the Chiefs by 14 and Blue Springs South will trump Chrisman by 9.  Rock Bridge beats then beats Blue Springs South by four to set up a great final with Francis Howell.

The state champion in class 5?  I may change my mind in a week but I think it's Rock Bridge by 2, right now.