Class 4 State Predictions

Class 4 Boys semis and final basketball games will not have as much suspense as the class five games if Grandview has anything to say about it, and they have been saying a lot this year with the way they have played.

Here's how they rank right now going into the semi-final round this coming week:
Team                    Season Rating            Back Half Rating
St. Mary's                 114                              120
Ladue                       115                              119

Logan-Rogersville   113                              116
Grandview               124                              127

Looking at the St. Mary's and Ladue Semi-final game, both teams started slow this season and have come on strong in the back half.  The two teams will play contrasting styles and it will be interesting to see if Ladue can keep the play at their pace or if it suits St. Mary's more.  I will take St. Mary's here by 10.  They will get Ladue out of their controlled pace and run the Greyhounds ragged.

Grandview has been dominating most teams and it will be no different for the Wildcats from Logan-Rogersville who have also started slow and come on stronger in the second half.  While playing better each month, L-R is at least a 10 to 15 point underdog to the Bulldogs.

That sets up a final with the Dragons and the Bulldogs.  The Dragons have never won a state title.  Grandview won in 2017.

Look for the Bulldogs to win their second by 5 in an exciting final.

Grandview.....  2019 Class 4 State Champs.

Class 5 final 4 predictions

It's a great final four with Rock Bridge, Lee's Summit North, CBC and Francis Howell all being great teams.  You can find in depth team analysis at Prep Hoops so I will stick strictly to numbers and a little tongue in cheek

.

I looked at the weighted season power rating, unweighted season rating and the end of season rating, all of which tell an interesting story, if you like numbers.

Team             Wgted     Unwgted   Backhalf
Rock Bridge  134.3        136.5         134.0
LSN               126.7        125.7         128.7
CBC              127.1        128.0         130.6
FH                 131.9        129.2         128.4

When I look at the Weighted rankings, which I have used for all of the blog postings for the entire season, Rock Bridge has a slight edge over Francis Howell for the state championship but both CBC and Lee's Summit North are within striking distance of either team.  A turnover here, a missed free throw there at a critical point down the stretch and any of these four teams could be state champion.  Still it appears Rock Bridge is the clear favorite in all three ratings.

The Unweighted ratings is looking at the season without any emphasis on one game over another.  I simply entered their point spreads verses all opponents to arrive at their rating.  In this case, Rock Bridge is again the clear favorite.

In the Back-half ratings, I looked at the opponents for only the last half of the season and it appears that CBC and Lee's Summit North are both coming on dramatically after slower starts.  Francis Howell has fallen off slightly from their early season performance on a point spread basis.  Even with these trends, there is not enough difference between these teams to slip a thin piece of paper between them.

So it's time to flip a coin on the semi-final games.....

I say Rock Bridge will beat Lee's Summit North by 5

I will go out on a limb and pick Francis Howell to stop the red-hot Cadets with a last second dunk on a put-back missed three by 6'9" super soph Sam Thompson to win by one in the other semi.

In the final, I am going out on limb and picking Francis Howell to beat Rock Bridge in another upset.  This one will be another close one.  Down to the wire.  Two point game.  Free throws by Matt Schark with 10 ticks left. 

Francis Howell, Class 5 State Champs.

Class 4 Missouri High School Boys Basketball Sectional picks

Here are my JIT (just in time) picks for class 4 sectionals.  All of these games take place this evening around the state.

The two marquee games are the section 1 game between Cape Central and Farmington and the section 7 games between Grandview and Raytown South, who are playing for the third time.

Look for the winners of section 1 and 7 to be in the state final.  I am sort of leaning toward Cape Central winning the whole thing right now.....

Here are my tongue in cheek picks:

Class 4 Section Picks
Section 1	Rating
Central (Cape Girardeau) High School	123
Two of the best teams in the state meet in the southeast sectional.  The Tigers maul the Knights in this one.  Cape by 8.
Farmington High School	115
Section 2	Rating
Hillsboro High School	109
While the Dragons are coming on, the inside/outside combination of the Hawks is too much for St. Mary's.  Hillsboro by 4.
St. Mary's (St. Louis) High School	105
Section 3	Rating
Ladue Horton Watkins High School	114
These teams have gone at it before and it's been a low post battle with no holds barred.  Jennings at the buzzer.
Jennings High School	115
Section 4	Rating
St. Charles West High School	106
My Chiropractor would break my neck if I didn’t pick the Knights to beat St. Charles West.  Keep Trent Champagne on ice and they win by 3.
St. Francis Borgia High School	109
Section 5	Rating
Warrensburg High School	109
The Tigers catch the Eagles nappings and shred their feathers.  Warrensburg by 6.
Sullivan High School	103
Section 6	Rating
Logan-Rogersville High School	109
And I thought the Cardinals were only good in football…. Webb City rolls over the L-R  Wildcats in a close contest by 3.
Webb City High School	112
Section 7	Rating
Grandview High School	122
Like the section 1 game, this game could be a state final, but instead it's just a sectional game.  Three times the charm, as the Bulldogs beat Raytown South for the third time this season.  Grandview by 6
Raytown South High School	116
Section 8	Rating
Southeast High School	113
The Fighting Irish from St. Joseph go down fighting as Southeast wins by 11.
Lafayette (St. Joseph) High School	102

Class 5 Sectional prognostications

You can get in-depth and thoughtful analysis of the prep contests over at Prep Hoops or the Post Dispatch for these boys high school contests coming up on March 6th.  All of these kids have worked really hard to get to this point, so hats off to all 100 or 120 of them.

Here are my tongue-in-cheek prognostications for the class 5 sectional games around the state of Missouri.

By the way, I didn't do to bad on district guesses for all five classes.  Off hand, I was something like right on 49 of 80 district winners for the five class for just over 60% correct.  I sucked in class 2 picks but really did well in class 1 and class 4 for some reason with nearly 75 to 80% correct.  I guess I will keep my day job though, Oh, wait, I don't have a day job....LOL

If you can get to a game, enjoy.  This all in good fun:

Class 5 Section Picks
Section 1	Rating
Jackson High School	114
A very close match up.  Jackson's frontline can go toe-to-toe with Mehlville and the coin toss goes to Jackson by 2.
Mehlville High School	112
Section 2	Rating
Eureka High School	117
The Brothers are too deep for the D-minded Cats who look to keep it under 10 til the fourth quarter and pull an upset down the stretch.
Christian Brothers College High School	127
Section 3	Rating
McCluer North High School	126
The Stars are not aligned for Central and they go down hard to a rising McCluer North senior- laden team by 10 or more.
Hazelwood Central High School	118
Section 4	Rating
Francis Howell High School	132
This game is not an even battle as the Howling starts before the opening tip.  Francis Howell blows out Battle by 25 or more.  Sorry, bad pun.
Battle High School	105
Section 5	Rating
Rock Bridge High School	134
Rock Bridge will be giving the underclassmen plenty of playing time in the second half.  The Bridge by 25.
Camdenton High School	109
Section 6	Rating
Kickapoo High School	120
It's become politically incorrect to keep a Native  American mascot name so does that justify me to say the Chiefs will kick the poo out of Republic by 7 or more?  Probably not....
Republic High School	113
Section 7	Rating
Lee's Summit North High School	126
This game could be a state final some years but instead it's just a sectional and one of these teams is trying out for spring sports on Thursday.  It's probably Lee's Summit North's players.  BSS by 4.
Blue Springs South High School	130
Section 8	Rating
William Chrisman High School	121
This game is TCTC (to close to call)!  NO?     Okay, then, Chrisman takes it at the buzzer.
Park Hill South High School	120

And the winner is...….   Look for Francis Howell to get by McCluer by 6 and then beat CBC by 5 to make the upper bracket as a finalist.  In the lower bracket, Rock Bridge will roll over the Chiefs by 14 and Blue Springs South will trump Chrisman by 9.  Rock Bridge beats then beats Blue Springs South by four to set up a great final with Francis Howell.

The state champion in class 5?  I may change my mind in a week but I think it's Rock Bridge by 2, right now.

Class 5 Missouri Boys basketball district rankings and predictions

It's early and some of the district seedings have not be published but I thought I would throw these out with my latest power ratings.  You will see more in-depth analysis at Prep Hoops at the Post Dispatch as the seeds are finalized.

For now, I am going to enjoy the last few class five regular season games and then see how good the old algorithm holds up in the district playoffs.

Enjoy.

CLASS 5 DISTRICT RANKINGS
District 1
#1 seed Poplar Bluff (15-6) should beat #2 seed Jackson by 10 in this district final and handle Mehlville in the sectional game.  It gets stickier in the quarterfinals against the deep district 3/4 sectional winner where Poplar Bluff's season probably ends.
Poplar Bluff High School	119
Jackson High School	108
Seckman High School	91
Northwest (Cedar Hill) High School	79
Average	99
District 2
Mehlville High School (19-7) is the most likely the #1 seed and should beat this district 2 field although Lindbergh's height could match up well.  The team's have split their two games this year.  Mehlville eliminates the Flyers in the rubber match by 5.
Mehlville High School	111
Vianney High School	106
Lindbergh High School	104
Oakville High School	94
Fox High School	88
Average	101
District 3
#1 Seed Marquette (18-5) has been locked in since losing to Rock Bridge in late January. The winner of the #2 Eureka and #3 Lafayette battle faces a tough challenge but an upset is not out of the question from either rival.  Gramps will pass on this prognostication.
Marquette High School	119
Eureka High School	117
Lafayette (Wildwood) High School	112
Parkway South High School	106
Washington High School	94
Average	110
District 4
This strong district field has not been seeded and for good reason.  How do you pick a #1 with CBC (17-7), De Smet (23-4) and Parkway Central (18-5)  playing as well as they all are.  CBC and Caleb Love win out here.
Christian Brothers College High School	125
DeSmet High School	122
Parkway Central High School	118
Kirkwood High School	109
Parkway West High School	93
Average	113
District 5
Another one of the strongest districts in the state, McCluer North (19-3) is the surprise #1 seed over #2 Webster Groves (18-2) and #3 Chaminade (12-8).  Look for a possible upset here, with the Webster-Chaminade winner (which could go to the buzzer) beating the Stars in a close district final.
Chaminade High School	125
Webster Groves High School	123
McCluer North High School	121
St. Louis University High School	104
Ritenour High School	93
Average	113
District 6
Hazelwood Central should be the #1 seed and should have no problem navigating through this field of good, but not great, teams, but gets eliminated by the district 5 champ in the sectional.
Hazelwood Central High School	119
Pattonville High School	110
Francis Howell Central High School	105
Hazelwood West High School	105
Francis Howell North High School	93
Average	107
District 7
Expect Francis Howell (22-2) to be the #1 seed and have a haymaker final vs. Ft. Zumwalt South (20-2) in what may be EJ Bellinger's last game.  Howell has a good shot at going all the way to the final where they will have their hands full with a team that starts with "Rock".  With a little luck Howell could win it all.
Francis Howell High School	127
Ft. Zumwalt South High School	121
Ft. Zumwalt West High School	107
Liberty (Wentzville) High School	106
Ft. Zumwalt North High School	104
Average	113
District 8
#4 seed Jeff City (10-12) upsets #1 Timberland (10-10) and then loses to #2 seed Troy Buchanan, the best 6-16 team in the state.  Don't count Troy out in the sectional game, as they lost to Howell by 3 and Zumwalt South by 1.
Troy Buchanan High School	110
Jefferson City High School	107
Holt High School	106
Timberland High School	101
Battle High School	98
Average	104
District 9
#1 seed Rock Bridge (17-3) should have no problem blowing through the district 9 field with a 30 point spread on the final vs. Raymore-Peculiar.  A potential state championship awaits if they can get by Kickapoo and Rockhurst to face Howell in the final.
Rock Bridge High School	133
Smith-Cotton High School	102
Raymore-Peculiar High School	101
Hickman High School	98
Belton High School	92
Average	106
District 10
#2 seed Waynesville (11-10) should beat #1 seed Camdenton by 7 in the district final before losing by 25 to Rock Bridge in the sectional.
Waynesville High School	108
Lebanon High School	102
Camdenton High School	101
Central (Springfield) High School	71
Average	95
District 11
#1 seed Kickapoo (16-4) beats #3 seed Ozark in the final after Ozark eases past #2 Nixa by 10.  Kickapoo could go deep into the state tournament lower bracket.
Kickapoo High School	122
Ozark High School	114
Nixa High School	104
Glendale High School	100
Branson High School	96
Average	107
District 12
#2 seed Willard (15-8) edges out #3 Parkview (13-11) before beating #4 Joplin (11-12) by 5, who "upsets" #1 seed Repulbic (18-6).  I say "upset" because I don't see Republic as a #1 seed despite their record against a softer schedule.
Willard High School	116
Parkview High School	112
Joplin High School	111
Republic High School	109
Carthage High School	94
Average	106
District 13
#1 seed Rockhurst (17-2) leads the way in the toughest district in the state, but should ease past #2 Lee's Summit North (17-3)  by 9 in the final.  Rockhurst probably has the toughest path to a state title, but should get by a top 5 ranked Blue Springs South, Kickapoo and Rock Bridge to reach the state final.  Likely state champs.
Rockhurst High School	131
Lee's Summit North High School	122
Lee's Summit High School	114
Ruskin High School	106
Lee's Summit West High School	102
Average	115
District 14
Not yet seeded, Blue Springs South is the cream of the crop in district 14 and should beat a strong Raytown team by 15 in the district final.  If they can get by Rockhurst, they could be a state finalist.  It’s a big IF.
Blue Springs South High School	130
Raytown High School	116
Truman High School	104
Blue Springs High School	100
Grain Valley High School	93
Average	109
District 15
William Chrisman leads the way in district 15 but faces a severe challenge from Fort Osage.  Either team could make a run into the state lower bracket.
William Chrisman High School	123
Fort Osage High School	120
Liberty North High School	109
Liberty High School	106
North Kansas City High School	99
Average	112
District 16
Another strong district, It's hard to pick a favorite between Park Hill, Park Hill South and Staley.  Look for Park Hill to win a squeeker final and make a run into the state tournament bracket.
Park Hill High School	120
Park Hill South High School	118
Staley High School	115
Oak Park High School	105
Central (St. Joseph) High School (Host)	104
Average	114